Supply cuts from Saudi Arabia remain price drivers for oil heading into the fourth quarter

The global oil market will remain constrained after output cuts from Saudi Arabia, pushing prices higher in the fourth quarter.

Experts predict oil prices will continue to rise heading in the fourth quarter, driven by tighter supply and production cuts. Despite some profit taking in the last week of September, crude oil prices have rallied since the summer. Global benchmark Brent crude has added 6.1% from the start of the year, while West Texas intermediate has climbed nearly 12%. Those gains came despite oil prices that struggled to break above $75 per barrel for much of the year until output forecasts declined. .

Ellis said that $100 per barrel for global benchmark Brent prices is both within striking distance and could be easily surpassed. Saxos Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen, meanwhile, expects $100 per barrel will be short-lived, with oil prices declining to the $80 range in 2024 as OPEC+ "will have to show its commitment to stable/higher prices.

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