Paul M. Sutter is an astrophysicist at SUNY Stony Brook and the Flatiron Institute in New York City. Paul received his PhD in Physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in 2011, and spent three years at the Paris Institute of Astrophysics, followed by a research fellowship in Trieste, Italy, His research focuses on many diverse topics, from the emptiest regions of the universe to the earliest moments of the Big Bang to the hunt for the first stars. As an 'Agent to the Stars,' Paul has passionately engaged the public in science outreach for several years. He is the host of the popular 'Ask a Spaceman!' podcast, author of 'Your Place in the Universe' and 'How to Die in Space' and he frequently appears on TV — including on The Weather Channel, for which he serves as Official Space Specialist.
. It will go supernova any day now, but"any day" for an astronomer could be a million years away. Even though we know that these kinds of stars will eventually detonate in a supernova, there's no way to get a more precise estimate than that. Or, at least, that used to be the case. Now, a team of astronomers has developed a way to spot supernovas that are likely to go off within a few years.
They specifically studied a few dozen of a unique type of supernova known as Type II-P supernovae. In contrast to other supernovas, these explosions remain bright long after the initial outburst. In a few examples, astronomers have looked back at old catalogs and found images of the stars before they exploded, and they all seem to be red supergiants like Betelgeuse. That's a clear indication that those kinds of stars are supernova candidates, ready to go off at a moment's notice.
The stars that result in these kinds of supernovas are thought to have dense shrouds of material surrounding them before they explode. These shrouds are orders of magnitude denser than what's measured around Betelgeuse. It's the heating of that material from the initial shock wave that causes the brightness to linger; there's simply more stuff lying around to keep glowing well after the first sign of the explosion.
That dense shroud also causes this kind of supernova to become visible more rapidly than its more exposed cousins. When the explosion initially happens, the shock wave hits the material around the star, which causes the shock wave to lose steam as it passes through.
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