The first quarter is on track to be the best in nine years, and the best start to the year for the S&P 500 since 1998.
The first quarter is on track to be the best in nearly 10 years, and the best start to the year for the S&P 500 since 1998. While it's not likely to repeat those gains, analysts say the second quarter could be good for stocks even with some bumps.
This year's first quarter certainly benefited from an oversold bounce back, after the fourth quarter's dramatic, near 14 percent slump, so some analysts say the second quarter could be higher, but not by nearly as much.Hurdles for the market are the unresolved U.S.-China trade talks; earnings growth of zero or lower, and a slowing global economy, led by China. Global growth fears have been building over the first quarter amid spotty U.S.
Tilley expects the U.S. and China to reach a trade deal this year, and he blames trade for much of the market weakness in the fourth quarter. The two sides have been negotiating with some slight signs of progress. Many economists believe the second half of the year will see better growth, but the outcome of the trade situation is a key to both the economy's performance and the market's.
At the same time, the markets have written off the Fed and believe after its last meeting it was signaling an even more dovish tone. In response, the futures markets are now pricing in rate cuts for this year and next, and the bond market underwent a massive readjustment with rates falling to more than one year lows. The move in the 2-year note yield, for instance, was the biggest such decline in six days since the financial crisis in 2009.
"For the time being, we're in a consolidation phase," said Emanuel."German yields slipping below zero tells you the depressed psychology is more entrenched than what you might have been expecting at this point."
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