The stock rally is facing a bearish cocktail as falling inflation eats into profits and the Fed saps $1.2 trillion in liquidity out of the market, Morgan Stanley says
. Those losses could collide with other pressures that could weigh on stocks, particularly as politicians mull hefty government spending cuts and Fed continues to reduce the size of its balance sheet, which will further tighten financial conditions.
Government spending cuts could notch $1.5 trillion over the next decade, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, a move that's expected to weigh GDP down 2% over the next year. Meanwhile, $1.2 trillion in Treasurys will be issued over the next six months and weigh on liquidity, which could be a major headwind for stocks.
"This should begin to hit asset prices by the end of this month and carry into the fall. In addition to this domestic dynamic, we think global M2 growth is also likely to flatten out and possibly fall again, adding one more element to the cocktail that could surprise newly minted bulls," strategists added.
Wall Street experts have been divided on the current rally in stocks, with some commentators warning of a sharp pullback as the US still faces an elevated risk of recession. The economy has a 71% chance of tipping into a downturn by May 2024, according to the
Malaysia Latest News, Malaysia Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
This Chinese internet stock can rally more than 30% thanks to A.I., Morgan Stanley saysThe firm also upgraded shares to overweight from equal weight.
Read more »
Morgan Stanley sees this budget car rental stock adding to its already strong gains for 2023The firm upgraded shares to overweight from equal weight.
Read more »
Alibaba and more: Morgan Stanley names 5 global stocks with at least 50% upsideThe Wall Street bank is bullish as the broad MSCI Asia Pacific equities index has entered a new bull market, rising 25% from last October's low.
Read more »
'Beyoncé blip' shows inflation could flare up again, Morgan Stanley saysThe 'Beyoncé blip' of Sweden should remind investors that inflation could flare up again unexpectedly, Morgan Stanley says
Read more »
Tesla Supercharger Network Potentially Worth $100B According To AnalystMorgan Stanley's Adam Jonas believes Tesla's charging network alone could be worth up to $100 billion.
Read more »