Southern California wages rose at a 4.9% annual rate in 2023’s first three months vs. 5.9% in 2022’s final quarter.
, a pay benchmark that’s carefully watched by the inflation-phobic Federal Reserve. The index tracks private-industry pay in 15 big U.S. job markets – including the region comprising Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties.So far, it’s working in Southern California where wages rose at a 4.9% annual rate in 2023’s first three months. That’s down from 5.9% in 2022’s final quarter and down from 5.6% a year earlier.
Nationwide, wages started the year rising at a 4.8% pace, down from 5.1% three months ago but the same 4.8% a year ago. In 2015-19, U.S. wages grew at a 3.4% annual pace.Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, averaged 5.8% in the first quarter. Yes, that’s below 7.1% three months earlier and 8% at the first of 2022. But remember that the CPI rose at a 1.5% annual rate in 2015-19.One of the many economic oddities of the pandemic era has been a shortage of workers.
But the Fed’s inflation battle is tricky because wage movement is a very regional pattern. Consider that of 15 job markets tracked by the Employment Cost Index, nine had shrinking raises over three months and eight had smaller increases over the past year. Unfortunately, the only way the Fed can tame inflation is by using high interest rates to cool demand for products and services. Part of the Fed’s bet is that such an economic chill will nudge bosses to minimize staffing and be less generous with pay.and crimp the Southern California job market to no growth during the next two years.
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