Warning signs for South Africa's democracy are flashing. Identity-based parties on the far left and right have gained ground
vote that reminds us of 1994,” said Cyril Ramaphosa as he cast his ballot on May 8th in Soweto, a township on the edge of Johannesburg. According to South Africa’s president, voters “were just as excited as this” 25 years ago. If so, they have a funny way of showing it.
The first election after the end of apartheid in 1994 saw 86% of adults go to the polls. In his autobiography Nelson Mandela recalled: “The mood of the nation during those days of voting was buoyant.” But in 2019 just 46% of South Africans over the age of 18 bothered to vote. The overwhelming emotion was neither excitement nor buoyancy, but despondency.The rainbow nation has suffered a lost decade and a disappointing quarter-century.
All of which could have meant disaster for the African National Congress , which has ruled since 1994. But Mr Ramaphosa, who, opinion polls suggest, is more popular than his party, helped thekept control of eight of South Africa’s nine provinces in regional ballots. In Gauteng, the most populous province, theYet the’s performance was still its worst ever. The party won 57.5% of the vote, down from 62.2% in 2014. It was the first time that support for thefell below 60% in a national ballot .
At a polling station near where Mr Ramaphosa voted, Tshego Kgasago, a 28-year-old office worker, explained that while she objected to somepolicies, such as Zimbabwe-style land seizures, she was voting for the party because it best embodies the idea that black people still get a raw deal. So long as that sentiment endures, thewas not the only race-based party that increased its share of the vote. The Freedom Front Plus won 2.4%, narrowly surpassing its previous high of 2.
The optimistic take is that these elections showed the durability of South Africa’s political centre. Mr Ramaphosa’swon nearly four of every five votes. But warning signs for the country’s democracy are flashing. Identity-based parties on the far left and right gained ground, while a majority of eligible South Africans did not even bother to vote. It now falls to Mr Ramaphosa to restore their belief in politics.
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