Researchers look at what could lie ahead for South Africa if the ANC drops below 50% in the coming elections.
The outcome of the 2024 election in South Africa is unlikely to shake up the status quo and lead to any shocks for the economy, says Oxford Economics Africa.In the scenario that the African National Congress wins between 46% – 49% of the national vote in the upcoming general elections, it is likely to pull in smaller parties to get over the line – not shake up the status quo with ties to parties like MK or the EFF, the research group said.
“Its national-level coalition agreement obliges the ANC to give a handful of ministerial positions to the smaller parties, but requires no drastic move away from the ANC’s policy direction as adopted at its last National Conference,” said Oxford Economics.“It would need to compromise more often with its coalition partners and risks being removed from government should its coalition partners defect,” said Oxford Economics.
As a result of this agreement between the ANC and IFP, Oxford Economics sees ex-President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe party reduced to a small caucus in the KZN provincial assembly, “soon disappearing from the national conversation.” “Muted inflation, soft consumer demand, a diversified economy, and orthodox monetary policies keep market risks relatively low compared to the rest of Africa,” said Oxford Economics.
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