The deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and other key figures from Hamas and Hezbollah are unlikely to impact the course of the Gaza war significantly, says Clemens Chay of NUS’ Middle East Institute.
, the leader of Hamas ’ political bureau, on Wednesday deals a heavy blow to the militant group behind the Oct 7, 2023 attacks on Israel.
But the same political involvement, coupled with his status as leader in exile, meant that a gap had opened up between Haniyeh’s base in Qatar and ground operations in Gaza, which are led by Yahya Sinwar. There have been multiple reports that Sinwar ordered the Oct 7 attacks without consulting Hamas’ political leadership in Qatar, giving rise to strains within the group.
We can expect that both Hamas and Hezbollah will retaliate for the killings of their leaders. The actions of the latter, coming afterraise fears of an all-out war between both sides. With Israel and Hezbollah already on the precipice, any miscalculation will have regional implications.
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