Slower US job, wage gains expected in May FMTNews FMTBusiness
The jobs report is likely to indicate another slowdown in growth, but the labour market remains strong.
“The jobs report is likely to show another step down in the pace of growth, but still a very strong labour market,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank in Dallas. “The Fed is under less pressure to raise interest rates at its meeting this month, than at any time over the last year and a half.”
Data for March and April would be closely watched for revisions. The government lowered employment gains in February and March by a combined 149,000 last month. But cracks are emerging. A Conference Board survey on Tuesday showed the share of people viewing jobs as “plentiful” dropped in May to the lowest level since April 2021.
Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% after jumping 0.5% in April, which was attributed to a calendar quirk. That would keep the year-on-year increase in wages unchanged at 4.4% in May. Annual wage growth averaged about 2.8% prior to the pandemic. Financial markets see a nearly 70% chance of the Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged at its June 13-14 meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 500 basis points since March 2022.
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