Six possible results from the Iowa caucuses by AndrewRomano & realchriswilson
Welcome to 2020 Vision, the Yahoo News column covering the presidential race. Reminder: There are 3 days until the Iowa caucuses and 277 days until the 2020 presidential election.
Story continuesAn impressive Sanders win would likely add to his polling average lead in New Hampshire. Another big win there and it would only be Michael Bloomberg’s billions and Biden’s margins with black voters standing in Sanders’s way. So how would a Biden win actually happen? Easily enough. He’s already polling at 21 percent, on average, so he should hit Iowa’s 15 percent viability threshold almost everywhere. But other moderates — Pete Buttigieg, who’s at 15 percent, and Amy Klobuchar, who’s at 10 percent — may not. At any caucus site where Buttigieg and/or Klobuchar don’t clear that bar, their supporters will likely “realign” with one of the remaining viable candidates during a second round of voting.
But Buttigieg’s fairy-tale campaign isn’t necessarily kaput. He’s built what is arguably Iowa’s strongest field operation, and to “win” on caucus night he doesn’t have to win the caucuses. He just has to beat Biden, his biggest competitor in the moderate lane. There are just 41 delegates up for grabs in Iowa, and with both Buttigieg and Klobuchar running ahead of their national averages here, it’s very possible we see a four- or even five-way split of the delegates. If the race is essentially a draw, look for campaigns to highlight the vote counts and how they performed relative to expectations.
It’s possible, then, that on Monday night Warren supporters’ main relevance will be as a source of second-choice votes for Sanders or Buttigieg. But given that she remains Democrats’ top second-choice candidate, it’s worth considering another possibility as well: that Warren’s deep ground-game investment and closing electability argument propel her past the viability threshold and past Buttigieg to an unexpectedly strong showing at a time when she’s nearly been declared DOA.
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