Climate is on everyone's mind these days after a summer of raging forest fires and scorching temperatures around the world.
reached out recently to 45 climate scientists around the world to find out how they would answer that question. What follows is a compendium of the responsesreceived. In general, the scientists said that, despite feeling events have taken a frightening turn, the global heating seen to date is entirely in line with three decades of scientific predictions.
Professor Matthew England of the University of New South Wales agreed. “While some of the records being set in 2023 are just crazy off-the-charts, everything is actually tracking within the range of projections of how Earth would respond to increasing greenhouse gas emissions — projections we’ve had now for the last 30 plus years.”
“July has been the hottest month in human history and people around the world are suffering the consequences,” said Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds. “But this is what we expected at [this level] of warming. This will become the average summer in 10 years’ time unless the world cooperates and puts climate action top of the agenda.”
“We have the impression that extreme heat is hitting us sooner and with greater intensity because of our unpreparedness,” he added. “Our perception is also biased by the fact that we are living more often in uncharted territory which gives a sense of acceleration. We now feel climate change that is emerging above usual weather.”, “I do think we are hitting a tipping point in global consciousness. For years I’ve spoken about the challenge of psychological distance.
Professor Tim Palmer of the University of Oxford pointed out that the data points usually available to climate scientists typically represent an area 100 km wide by 100 km high. “Climate models do such a poor job at simulating regional extremes of weather that I don’t think scientists were especially surprised that observed weather extremes were becoming more intense than predicted by the models,” he said.
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