Market Overview Analysis by Gary Tanashian covering: 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread. Read Gary Tanashian's latest article on Investing.com
is getting airplay, but Sahm is not what I am, it is just one non-exceptional and somewhat lagging indicator of the coming recession.Claudia Sahm talks about the “big lever still to pull” by the Fed. That being a plethora of interest rate cuts. Sahm talks about the
Here is the 1 year view. It shows the segments that have done the heavy employment lifting over the last 12 months, instead of a one month snapshot. The trend is embedded Education and Health services first, and unprecedented government hiring second! Oh and that productive economic engine , Leisure & Hospitality, third. This in a supposedly strong economy. No, it is not and it has been slipping for months while the monthly jobs report keeps up some sort of appearances.
It is not the flatting to inversion that brings the pain. It is the subsequent steepening and un-inversion. Of late, theHere is the daily view of the 10-2 yield curve. Our original view was that the secondary extreme to the inversion wasinversion low about a year ago. That obviously is still the case. The fledgling 2023 uptrend from July to October then took a good, long sideways test but retained its trend change potential.
Upcoming will be the answer to the “healthy correction or start of the bear market?” question. Today is looking to be quite dynamic, but the state of pre-market sees indexes and some key equity leaders still in the “healthy correction” category. It’s going to be a fun week, either way. It appears that the next phase we have expected is in progress. That phase is a reaction after the big move in bond yields to the upside. The reaction has been expected to be disinflationary to deflationary. In my opinion we can get similar boom/bust cycles to those that have played out periodically since Greenspan took the system down the rabbit hole of magical monetary policy 24 years ago.
There are few aspects of financial markets that are sure bets. But one of them is that listening to and reacting to the financial media in real time will be bad for your financial health. The mouthpieces are telling us what we already knew or should have known months ago, back in 2023 even.
Malaysia Latest News, Malaysia Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Gary Smith, best known as 'Gary the Happy Pirate,' dies at age 64Rochester, N.Y. (WHAM) Gary Smith, best known for his role as Rochester children's entertainer 'Gary the Happy Pirate,' has died.Smith teamed up with Doug Ladd
Read more »
Sahm's Tavern and Sports Bar coming to Irvington this yearOwner Eddie Sahm says the goal is to open by Oct. 1.
Read more »
Aspen Creek Grill breaks ground on newest location in GreenwoodOwner Eddie Sahm says the goal is to open by Oct. 1.
Read more »
USD: What about Sahm? – CommerzbankIt could be pointed out again that the US employment report is a very volatile time series and therefore tends to contain more noise than signal.
Read more »
July employment: That was Sahm jobs reportsThe ongoing deterioration in the jobs market was on full display in the July Employment report.
Read more »
Sahm Rule Confirms Economic Weakness as Recession Risks IntensifyMarket Overview Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: . Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
Read more »