US equities are up 16% this year. Economists at Société Générale analyze the S&P 500 Index outlook. Moving 3Q23 target of 4,750 to 4Q23 We shift our S
We shift our S&P 500 Index target of 4,750 in 3Q23 to year-end 2023 as the no-landing scenario is not yet priced in and should be over the coming months as recession calls are deleted/delayed. Put another way, we stay bullish near term, despite the likely jitters in 2024.
We expect a 15% shock in the S&P 500 in 2Q24, likely driven by a contraction in US consumer spending. However, with a return to 5% nominal GDP growth in 2025e, the S&P 500 should recover. Our index targets are supported by our equity risk premium projections, which assume: 1) bond yields will come down to 3-3.5% in a soft recession; and 2) aggressive Fed rate cuts in the middle of 2024.Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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