Stocks continue to rally and the Nasdaq is flirting with ‘bull market’ territory. This rally from June lows has many declaring that the boom is in. This point of view is usually entangled with the expectation that inflation has topped.
Stocks have been rallying like it’s April of 2020 and the Nasdaq 100 came into the morning flirting with ‘bull market’ territory after jumping by more than 20% from the June low. This, of course, is happening as many are questioning the possibility of recession while the Fed continues to hike rates with aim of tempering inflation.
And that’s where the proverbial rubber meets the road: Going off of prior patterns around the Fed, in which softness and accommodation were the answer for weakening economic data, some market participants are hypothesizing that the Fed is done with hikes or at least near a point of being done. And this has led into eventual cuts starting to get priced-in, which has helped equities to recover from the back-breaking sell-off that had gripped global markets coming into the month of June.
So, the argument at this point seems to boil down to whether or not the Fed has hiked enough to make a meaningful impact to inflation. And while many seem to already have an answer to this question the reality is that we simply don’t yet know as it takes time for rate hikes to transmit into the economy, a quote that even Chair Powell had offered up at the lastThose looking for or expecting a closer Fed pivot point to falling Treasury yields as a sign of that theme getting priced-in.
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