Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the financial reckoning imposed on Moscow in response are proof that the triumphant globalization campaign that began more than 30 years ago has reached a dead end
But the war’s long-term consequences could be more profound. Even before Russian President Vladimir Putin sent tanks and missiles hurtling toward Ukraine, years of deteriorating U.S.-China relations and failed global trade talks had stalled the tighter integration of finance and trade flows that had been anticipated during globalization’s heyday.What comes next is unlikely to mirror the Cold War’s distinct blocs.
has been closed for a week. Russian customers are cut off from much of the world’s most advanced technologies.On Friday, Russia’s isolation deepened as the country’s communications regulator blocked access to Facebook, one of the few sources of information that the government already did not control, saying it had discriminated against Russia media.
“There’s a chance — which increases with every human rights outrage that Putin commits — that Russia is shut out of the global economy for a long time. … You are removing this big chunk of the global economy and going back to the situation we had in the Cold War when the Soviet bloc was pretty much closed off,” said Maury Obstfeld, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley.
From the outset, many U.S. officials saw a link between political and economic freedom. By 2000, when Congress was debating China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, President Bill Clinton saw trade ties heralding “very profound change,” including in the country’s political system. Even before the pandemic drove the developing world into deeper poverty, about 70 percent of the world’s countries were experiencing subpar growth, roughly three times the figure in 2008, according to the World Bank. Nondemocratic rule similarly spread across much of the globe.
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