But for how long?
Another display purported to show a chemical-weapons lab with barrels of precursors labelled in English—an apparent attempt to accuse rebels of using chlorine gas in Douma in 2018. Western powers blamed the regime of Bashar al-Assad and bombed Syrian air bases in retaliation.
“The military success was much bigger than anyone expected,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign-policy adviser to the Russian government. “Russia demonstrated in Syria that it has a degree of efficiency in using military force, compared with the two previous experiences in Georgia and Ukraine. Politically, it was an even bigger surprise.”
Russia and Saudi Arabia struck an unprecedented deal in early 2017 to limit oil output. The so-called-plus accord has helped lift prices, which fell below $30 a barrel in 2016, to their current level above $60. In Mr Lukyanov’s view, the deal would not have been possible without Russia’s enhanced regional status.
Kremlin-watchers reckon little of all this had been in Mr Putin’s mind when he ordered his forces into Syria. His priority had been to avert the collapse of Mr Assad’s regime, and the risk that Syria might become an exporter of jihadism to Russia. Another reason was to break out of the diplomatic isolation he faced over Ukraine.
Mr Putin is also less troubled than Western leaders are by public opinion or civil-society groups making a fuss about Russia’s actions. He does not ask about democracy and human rights. “We have a common interest in non-intervention in our internal affairs,” says an Arab diplomat. In the view of Arab leaders, Mr Obama forsook Egypt’s dictator, Hosni Mubarak, whereas Mr Putin stood by the vile Mr Assad. Even if Donald Trump is more partial to strongmen than Mr Obama was, they find him mercurial.
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