THE SCARRING IMPACT of the coronavirus pandemic on the Philippines can be significantly reduced if the economic growth remains strong this year and in 2023, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said. READ:
“The scarring effects caused by the pandemic have raised the urgency to take action to build resilient, sustainable, and inclusive long-term growth… Otherwise, it would take longer time to mitigate scarring effects,” Heung Chun “Andrew” Tsang, an economist at AMRO, said during the think tank’s briefing on its 2021 Annual Consultation Report on the Philippines, on Wednesday.
The most serious impact is on human capital, as seen with the sharp rise in unemployment and poverty rates during the pandemic. The quality of learning also suffered as schools shifted to online classes amid the strict lockdowns. The services sector, particularly tourism, is also seen to bounce back as travel restrictions continue to ease.
AMRO also cited the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, China’s economic slowdown and capital flow volatility as other risks to the Philippines’ recovery. As of end-March, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 63.5%, beyond the 60% threshold prescribed by multilateral lenders to developing economies.
“The share of nonresident holdings of government securities is less than 2%, which makes the domestic bond market less vulnerable to a sell-off by foreign investors. Lastly, the government is mindful of potential fiscal risks from rising debt levels and continues to exercise prudence in debt management and fiscal policies,” it said.
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