It would probably be a mistake to take a more or less fair-fight district in New York as a bellwether for anything, writes Freddoso. Last night in New York, Republicans didn’t do what they needed to do. That's a problem.
The headline results were the special House elections in New York’s old 19th and 23rd Congressional Districts. In the 19th District, Pat Ryan, a Democrat, defeated Marc Molinaro. This seat, which Democratic former Rep. Anthony Delgado abandoned to run for lieutenant governor this year, is R+4, according to FiveThirtyEight, meaning that over the last couple of elections, it was on average 4 percentage points more Republican than the national electorate.
In western New York, Joe Sempolinski won the old 23rd District, defeating Democrat Max Della Pia. But even in victory, he underperformed, winning an R+15 district by less than 7 points. Then again, this may not be a national problem. It could be a problem of particularly poor candidates, low-turnout special elections, and the weird dynamic of Molinaro having to run in two differently drawn districts at the same time. It may also be a New York-specific problem — if abortion cuts in the Democrats’ favor here, it may cut against them in other places.
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