A closer look at the pandemic shows that as public testing sites run by state and local governments have winnowed, more states have also stopped giving daily data updates, creating a foggier look at the state of the virus across the country.
At a glance, the pandemic picture in the United States may seem remarkably stable. The average number of new confirmed coronavirus cases per day has hardly budged for weeks, hovering between 95,000 and 115,000 a day each day in June.
“One of my favorite lines from somebody at the CDC was ‘You don’t need to count the raindrops to know how hard it’s raining,’” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in late June at a conference in Aspen, Colorado. “So we can tell by the half a million to a million PCRs we’re doing every day how we’re doing in areas around the country.”
“That’s not really a reflection of the total amount of virus circulating in the communities,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health. He said that his “back of the envelope” estimate was about 1 million cases per day.
Recent virus figures have hiccuped around holidays such as Memorial Day and Juneteenth, during which many states often pause reporting and then restart tracking afterward, a trend that is sure to continue this week, after the Fourth of July holiday weekend.“Following the daily test count is less instructive than it was,” Adalja said, citing the close link between cases and hospitalizations in the past.
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