Market Overview Analysis by James Picerno covering: United States 2-Year, United States 10-Year. Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
According to this model, the US economy isn’t just rolling along at a moderate pace — it’s surging.
If the current forecast for 5.8% is accurate, the economy’s growth rate is set to more more than double from Q2’s rise and will mark the strongest gain since 2021’s Q4. Is it time to pop the champagne corks? Not yet. Although this pair of nowcasts paint a bullish picture for the economy that breaks to the upside vs. recent history, nowcasting models can be volatile, so incoming data could quickly reverse the latest upgrades in a flash.My preferred nowcast monitoring tool is combining several estimates and tracking the changes, which is a more robust methodology for nowcasting than relying on any one model.
A more convincing view at the moment is that the case for expecting a recession to start in the current quarter is virtually nil. Q4 and beyond are less clear, but it’s fair to say that the outlook for the near term is brighter.
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