Even if the Socialists gain 50 seats, as polls suggest they might, Pedro Sánchez will fall short of a majority
in Dos Hermanas, a large dormitory town outside Seville, Pedro Sánchez launched a bid to regain the leadership of Spain’s Socialist Party, from which he had been ousted in an internal coup three months earlier. Few in the Madrid political establishment gave him a chance, yet after months driving from rally to rally in his 12-year old Peugeot 407 he won his job back in a party primary.
The Socialists used their months in power to roll back some of Mr Rajoy’s cuts in the welfare state and decree a big increase in the minimum wage . The right wants tax cuts, and worries that the Socialists will curtail a strong economic recovery which is starting to run out of steam. Mr Sánchez’s bet is that Spaniards are less angry and paranoid, and more socially liberal, than the right now thinks. He insists that he would talk to the Catalan separatists only within the parameters of the constitution and would not concede a referendum on independence. He proposes a constitutional amendment to “clarify” the assignment of powers between the centre and the regions. That sounds like federalism that dare not speak its name .
Maybe so, though the polls tend to exaggerate support for new parties. But Spain’s electoral system, which is less strictly proportional in less populated provinces, is likely to penalise the right for its three-way split, denying the right-wing parties the legislative majority of which they were confident two months ago.
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