The Russian leader and his circle have seen all the documents by now, and he'd probably prefer that no one else did.
says that the documents are"based on sensitive U.S. intelligence, gathered through classified sources and methods...." The alleged leaker, Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the Air National Guard, was arrested Friday and is expected to face charges of mishandling classified documents and perhaps espionage. The Bureau stated in its affidavit in support of Teixeira's arrest that these images have already been posted"on various public Internet sites.
In the eyes of U.S. intelligence, compromise of Top Secret information"reasonably could be expected to cause exceptionally grave damage to the national security." Yet President, in Dublin on Thursday, said"there's nothing contemporaneous that I'm aware of that is of great consequence" in the documents.
Still, it's useful to ponder whether there are real secrets contained in the documents. Is Ukraine's planned April 30 counter-offensive Top Secret? Is a report derived from a specific intercept of a specific phone call Top Secret? To the intelligence community, the answer is yes.
"RUS [Russian] forces continued ground operations in Donetsk and were establishing a defense-in-depth between Kherson and Zaporizhzhia," the document says in a paragraph marked Top Secret, demarcating the positioning of the Russia's four"groupings of troops"—central, western, southern and eastern. A Russian Kilo class diesel powered attack submarine is reported as having departed its Crimean base.
The first of two reports in the document are clearly from intercepted voice phone calls via a foreign intelligence service, as evidenced by the"REL [releasable] to USA" marking which means that it is being given to the U.S. The information about a possible political move against Putin, far more speculative, seems to come from a separate intercept of a Ukrainian member of Parliament.#5: The battle for the Donbas region is headed for a stalemate, reports this Top Secret document.
The document shows the degree to which the National Security Agency and its military affiliates collect"traffic" data: electronic intelligence other than voice communications. No"sources or methods"#10: Ukrainian units are identified by name in"Bakhmut Topographic Tactical Map, as of 010600 EST Mar 2023," March 1, 2023, Top SecretThe document identifies Ukrainian units by name and locates general front line deployments and defenses.
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