Billionaire investor Ray Dalio believes a period of great disorder is upon us and one way or another, the current holding pattern won’t last.
Right now, uncertainty over the path of inflation is clearly hanging heavily over markets. The rally in equity markets this year appears predicated on the idea that central banks will end their tightening cycles within months and be cutting rates shortly after. But sticky inflation, resilient economic growth and the broader question of how governments deal with the high debt levels built up since the GFC mean the picture will remain cloudy.
The looming manifestation of this internal division is the fight over the US debt ceiling, which will heat up in the coming months. Dalio predicts it will “not go as smoothly as most people expect, and will likely become a big election issue that will split the country because both sides will fight for victories and will be less willing to compromise”.
But if Dalio is sure the above four trends are in play right now, he is less certain on the potential level of disruption that artificial intelligence will bring. That’s reasonable, given how early we are in the development of AI. On their own, each of Dalio’s megatrends are important for investors to consider. But his key point is that at least four of the five are in play at the same time.
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