The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made the forecast in its daily update on the conflict on Monday.
The ISW said it had taken into account Russia's timelines, deployment plans, the weather and Moscow's energy war with Europe.will most likely try to continue conventional military operations in Ukraine to hold currently occupied territories, gain new ground, and set conditions for the collapse of Western support for Ukraine that he likely expects to occur this winter," the report said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with the Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin in Saint Petersburg on October 9, 2022. Putin has a two-pronged strategy for the war in Ukraine this winter, according to the Institute for the Study of War think tank.The ISW said Putin would more likely take this approach than escalate things by using nuclear weapons, or sacrifice its objectives in order to end the conflict.
The war began on February 24, when Putin announced a"special military operation" in Ukraine. Although Russia has made some significant gains in the east and in the south of the country, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled Moscow's progress and, in some places, has forced it to retreat from areas it captured early in the war.
"Putin has likely not abandoned hopes of achieving his maximalist aims in Ukraine through conventional military means, which he is pursuing in parallel with efforts to break Ukraine's will to fight and the West's will to continue supporting Kyiv," the assessment said. It added that the Russian President is unlikely to escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons unless the Russian military suddenly collapses and Ukrainian forces make significant advances.Putin's nuclear saber-rattling,Putin in September declared a"partial mobilization" of up to 300,000 military reservists, and he had allegedly been planning the move for nearly four months before the decision was publicized.
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