A new study suggests using conservation data to proactively predict and prevent species from becoming threatened, potentially benefiting up to 20% of land mammals by 2100. The research emphasizes the need for conservation approaches that respect Indigenous communities and foster human-animal coexist
Conservation efforts often occur reactively once a species is already threatened, but a study published inproposes using existing data to predict which unthreatened species could become endangered, allowing for proactive prevention. Lead author Marcel Cardillo and his team examined global change factors, such as climate change, human population growth, and land use changes, in conjunction with species’ intrinsic vulnerabilities.
To predict “over-the-horizon” extinction risk, Cardillo and colleagues looked at three aspects of global change—climate change, human population growth, and the rate of change in land use—together with intrinsic biological features that could make some species more vulnerable. The team predicts that up to 20% of land mammals will have a combination of two or more of these risk factors by the year 2100.
“There’s a congruence of multiple future risk factors in Sub-Saharan African and southeastern Australia: climate change , human population growth, and changes in land use,” says Cardillo. “And there are a lot of large mammal species that are likely to be more sensitive to these things. It’s pretty much the perfect storm.”
“But increasingly, it’s being recognized that that’s very much a Western view of conservation because it dictates separating people from nature,” says Cardillo. “It’s a sort of view of nature where humans don’t play a role, and that’s something that doesn’t sit well with a lot of cultures in many parts of the world.”
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