Beth Kindig is the CEO and Lead Tech Analyst for the I/O Fund and delivers weekly in-depth tech stock analysis to her free newsletter subscribers. Sign up here to receive free weekly stock tips. I/O Fund has a cumulative return of 131% since our inception in May 2020, beating Ark and the majority of Wall Street funds.
portion of the Microsoft Annual Shareholders Meeting at the Meydenbauer Center on November 28, 2018 in Bellevue, Washington. Microsoft recently surpassed Apple, Inc. to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company. The period after the dot-com bubble including the financial crisis of 2008 were difficult years for Microsoft. The stock returned a mere 38% compared to Amazon’s 657.9% in the same time frame and Apple’s 5150%.
Management has stated the primary issue is being capacity constrained, which all things equal, is bullish for the medium-term as it implies demand exceeds supply for Azure AI and Azure’s consumption business. Per management inearnings call: “And in H2, we expect Azure growth to accelerate as our capital investments create an increase in available AI capacity to serve more of the growing demand.”
Also tied to Microsoft’s strong presence in security, the Federal Government often gets overlooked in terms of its AI impact to Azure. In a blog post, the company CTO Bill Chappell wrote:" generative AI capabilities through Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service, can help government agencies improve efficiency, enhance productivity, and unlock new insights from their data. Many agencies require a higher level of security given the sensitivity of government data.
“Second, even Azure OpenAI API customers are all new, and the workload conversations, whether it’s B2C conversations in financial services or drug discovery on another side, these are all new workloads that we really were not in the game in the past, whereas we now are.” Today, Microsoft has more than 400 million 365 Commercial customer seats and 78.4 million 365 Consumer subscribers, giving a nearly ~480 million customer base to target for AI services. Assuming AI PCs help to spark a strong growth trajectory for Copilot, just a 10% adoption rate across both Commercial and Consumer by the end of the fiscal year would surpass $17 billion annual run rate.
Copilot+ for Windows is a sidebar that helps Windows users change settings, find files or summarize text across a desktop. Recall is a feature that helps a Windows user find documents, emails and web pages when a user simply states how they recall the file or digital asset. On some Surface laptops, there is a Copilot key, a digital pen enhanced with AI, sound and voice features enhanced with AI, and enhanced AI cameras.
Within this rapid growth, commercial adoption is forecast to be higher, at approximately 60% by 2028 versus 40% for consumer. This is due to the productivity gains that AI PCs can enable via powerful on-device AI as well as benefits to software developers and related roles. For example, Dell’s, equipped with the Snapdragon X Elite can support 13 billion-plus parameter models which means customers can run popular models like Llama 3 directly on their PCs.
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