Those wanting to overthrow governments seem to be immune to sanctions imposed by the African Union.
Military coups, once the preferred method of changing power in Africa but then later rather unfashionable, are making a comeback, with six successful and two failed ones in just the past two years.
The sanctions seemed at first to have an effect as the average dropped to under 1.5 coups a year for the next two decades, according to Powell and Thyne. But now it appears coups are on the rise again. One of the most worrying features of the latest batch of coups is that they seem to be enjoying rising popular support. Images of junta leaders being cheered by crowds in the streets of different capitals may even be contributing to a copycat effect.In Sudan last October, the military seized sole power to avoid having to transfer it to a civilian leader as part of a transitional government deal.
In more general terms, disenchantment with the poor performance or blatant clinging to power of civilian governments is one of the main overlapping causes of coups. That is why the people so often dance in the streets when the army takes power. “The failure to respond to a few recent cases, perhaps most notably Chad in 2021 and Zimbabwe in 2017, sent signals that coups were okay under the right conditions,” Powell toldThe AU failed to punish the Chadian junta. And, in Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa’s ousting of then president Robert Mugabe was widely characterised as a coup as armoured vehicles surrounded Mugabe’s house. But Mnangagwa’s government insisted Mugabe had resigned and the AU went along with that.
“Coupists should certainly not be allowed to eventually chair the regional organisations that purport to want to end these events. The same goes for foreign states providing military assistance.”
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