POLITICS OP-ED: ANC faces storm of power struggles if forced to form a coalition government

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POLITICS OP-ED: ANC faces storm of power struggles if forced to form a coalition government
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What happens if the ANC loses its overall majority in the National Assembly in the 2024 or 2029 national election? If it forms an alliance with smaller parties, will it force the ANC to govern better, or will it make things even worse? And what happens if the ANC retains control of the National Council of Provinces, but a coalition of other parties form a government that excluded the ANC? The short answer: it is likely to be messy.

With two years to go until South Africans go to the polls to vote in national and provincial elections, it is not clear whether the ANC will retain its overall majority in the National Assembly or dip below 50%. But voters who are rightlyof government corruption, mismanagement, dysfunction, and paralysis, would be mistaken if they believed that things will necessarily get better if the ANC loses its majority in the NA.

If the ANC fell only a few seats short of an overall majority in the NA, it should not be too difficult for the party to secure the election of its candidate as president to head up a new government. Assuming the ANC won 194 of the 400 seats in the NA, it could make a deal with the EFF, DA, IFP, or Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA , or it could try to secure support from a few small parties with one or two seats in the NA in order to cobble together the required majority of 201 seats.

From left: EFF leader Julius Malema. | DA leader John Steenhuisen. | Action SA leader Herman Mashaba. | Patriotic Alliance leader Gayton McKenzie.

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