Perspective | Iranians do want regime change — but not the kind Washington hawks are pushing

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Perspective | Iranians do want regime change — but not the kind Washington hawks are pushing
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Perspective: Iranians do want regime change — but not the kind Washington hawks are pushing

National security adviser John Bolton listens as President Trump speaks with reporters April 9 at the White House. Bolton has pushed Trump's Iran policy in a hawkish direction. By Vali Nasr Vali Nasr Bio Follow Vali Nasr, the dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, was a senior adviser on Afghanistan and Pakistan at the State Department during the Obama administration.

Trump’s talk of negotiations rings hollow. Washington’s strategy, it has been clear for some time, is to oust the current Iranian leadership through economic pressure and, if necessary, a nudge from the military. No wonder national security adviser John Bolton and other hawkish officials had asked the Pentagon for a plan that includes sending as many as 120,000 troops to the Middle East, should Iran make an aggressive military move.

The problem, for U.S. hawks, is that Iranians think they already signed up for a version of it, on their terms: Iranian citizens looked to the nuclear deal as the first step in repairing Iran’s relations with the West and changing the character of their country’s politics. If the nuclear deal held, then other deals would follow, they thought, each further opening Iran’s economy and relaxing its politics.

Yes, security forces have been quick to clamp down on protests in an effort to stamp out unrest before it spreads, but the real reason for the lack of revolutionary fervor is that few Iranians want to upend order and stability — especially to serve Washington’s goals. The Arab Spring, Iranians have not failed to notice, did not turn out well for the Arab world. Its legacy is civil war, broken states and more authoritarianism.

Iranian have plenty to not like about the Islamic Republic, but they will resist being used as an instrument of U.S. policy. The memory of the 1953 U.S. meddling in Iranian politics — which animated the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the subsequent hostage crisis — still looms large in popular consciousness. If it comes to confrontation, many will rally to the flag.

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