The nation's leading expert on recall elections has had enough of your hot takes.
In 2003, the recall burst into national attention when Gov. Gray Davis was recalled and Arnold Schwarzenegger took the governorship. Once again, the victory did not have any significant implications for later races, as John Kerry easily won the state in 2004.
We saw this same phenomenon at the state legislative levels as well. In June 2018, California state Sen. Josh Newman was recalled. Rather than a red light, the Democrats wisely ignored any lessons from this recall as they pulled off an historic sweep in November, capturing seven congressional seats in Orange County. Newman himself came back to retake the seat in 2020.
For Californians, and especially for Boudin, this list of results can be seen as a mixed bag. The successful school board recalls were over very different issues that should not have an impact on his election. In fact, it may be that the school board recall is a net positive for him, as his supporters will be scared and more motivated to come out to the polls in June.
For Democrats at the national level, these recalls are not much of a data point, except for the fact that voters care about school issues. Historical patterns and the ever-present political dangers of inflation suggest Democrats will automatically face a rough road ahead. As with other recalls, they do not present a compelling argument to make any sweeping claim about what it all means. Anyone trying to sell grand themes and lessons about a recall should be looked at quite skeptically.
Joshua Spivak is a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College. He is the author of"Recall Elections: From Alexander Hamilton to Gavin Newsom" and writes the Recall Elections Blog.
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