Opinion | Trita Parsi: President Trump's Iran posturing is all John Bolton's doing, and may be his undoing. - NBCNewsTHINK
. “Looks like you are going to get a war instead. That’s what happens when you listen to the mustache. Good luck in 2020!”
Tehran may be right, and many in Washington agree with Iran’s assessment of Trump disinterest in war. Yet, Iran’s strategy is also immensely risky: Trump is an unpredictable character and, while his political instincts lean against war, his easily manipulated impulses consistently override his instincts.
But with Trump crippling the Iranian economy, Tehran seems to have reached the conclusion that counter-escalating — despite its risks — is its best choice. Iran faces greater danger when all of the cost and risks are on its shoulders. If the cost and risks are more evenly distributed, Iran calculates that it can secure a better outcome for itself.
If the plan works, and the Trump-Bolton tensions grow and lead to Bolton’s firing, Tehran will have proved to Trump that it won’t crack under pressure. Trump will be forced to back off from his belligerent posture — just as he did with North Korea — and adopt a more conciliatory tone. With that leverage in hand, Iran may then be ready to confront Trump at the negotiating table.
But having planned to thwart a U.S. military attack on Iran ever since the mid-1990s, Tehran also appears ready for this plan not to work.
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