My team at the University of Washington makes COVID-19 death projections, which change as more information becomes available.
of COVID-19 in the U.S. by November. That supersedes an earlier forecast of more than 179,000 deaths by October.
Over the last few months, our projections have risen, fallen and risen again. Such unpredictability, as well as rapid evolution, are essential elements of the process in projecting the course of a new disease. As the pandemic unfolds, more information becomes available — how many people are moving around, who is and isn’t wearing masks — and our modeling evolves with that data.
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