Oil price forecast: frothy with high likelihood of Trump tweet storm

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Oil price forecast: frothy with high likelihood of Trump tweet storm
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Rising oil prices at the start of 2018 prompted Trump to unleash a Twitter barrage against OPEC. History looks poised to repeat itself.

Rising oil prices at the start of 2018 prompted President Donald Trump to unleash a barrage of abusive tweets at OPEC. This year, the oil market is giving the commander-in-chief plenty of ammunition.

The setup was similar last year when Trump fired his first presidential salvo at OPEC at the end of April, followed by several more tweets throughout 2018. Trump went silent after OPEC defied him by launching new production cuts in December, but last month, he put the group on notice. The national average gas price has risen 35 cents since January and now sits at $2.58 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. The run-up has been particularly pronounced in the Midwest, with Michigan's price surging 75 cents and costs in Ohio and Illinois up more than 60 cents.

As gasoline prices bubble up, Trump's opportunities to influence OPEC policy suddenly narrowed this week. The No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act, or NOPEC, would allow the Justice Department to sue OPEC members for coordinating production, the group's primarily lever for adjusting oil supply and prices.

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