The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has been weakening – and new predictions suggest it could totally switch off between 2025 and 2095.
Finding that direct measurements of the AMOC's strength have only been made for the past 15 years, Ditlevsen's team applied sophisticated statistical tools to ocean temperature data going all the way back to the 1870s for an enhanced dataset. This detailed analysis ultimately suggested significant warning signs of the AMOC shutting down between 2025 and 2095, with a staggering certainty of 95%.
Still, other climate scientists remain cautious, saying that there are still uncertainties in the data that could affect its accuracy. However, it's worth considering that even the mere possibility of the AMOC shutting down so soon is rather alarming. The AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream as part of its system, is our planet's main mode of transporting heat away from the tropics. Without it, the tropics would rapidly increase in temperature while vital tropical rains get disrupted. Such rains are essential for the environments of South America, western Africa as well as in India and other regions of south Asia.
Meanwhile, northern and western Europe would lose their source of warm water from the tropics, leading to more storms and severely cold winters in these areas. The loss of the Gulf Stream in particular would also result in"Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible," Ditlevsen said.
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