Question is whether Sunak can sell a deal to DUP and Eurosceptic ERG
But there remain difficulties, not least the role of the European Court of Justice in overseeing the application of the protocol. This offends some unionists and the hyper-sovereigntist wing of the Conservative party. But the EU position that the oversight of EU rules is a matter for the EU courts is very unlikely to budge. And any deal is going to maintain some EU rules in the North because that is the entire basis of the protocol in the first place.
Wednesday morning’s reports suggested that the problem of the ECJ’s role had been overcome by an agreement that its only role would be when the Northern Ireland courts referred an issue to the ECJ. Dublin says this isn’t the case. A senior Brussels source says: “I don’t even understand it.” A senior British source agrees that reports of a deal being concluded are seriously overcooked.
But the biggest uncertainty is not actually whether a deal can be agreed. All sides say that, while they’re not there yet, a deal is possible. The uncertainty is twofold: can Sunak sell an deal to the Eurosceptic wing? And even if he does, can he sell it to the DUP? The signs were mixed: reports from London suggested that the European Research Group of Conservative Eurosceptic hardliners and the DUP would reject a deal along the lines suggested. But DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson clearly didn’t rule out the deal on Wednesday morning when reports first surfaced, tweeting a link to the piece and saying that any agreement had to “reinstate NI’s place in the UK internal market and respect our constitutional position”.
You can be sure that Sunak’s view of any deal will be that it does just that. But what will the benches behind him in the House of Commons think? What will the DUP, sitting across the aisle and watching him fiercely, think?
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