Russia’s hunt for weapons to fire at Ukraine could provide a lifeline for North Korea, where even a relatively modest arms deal would help lift the country’s cash-starved and stagnant economy into growth.
The US made fresh accusations this month that Kim Jong Un is providing arms and ammunition to aid Putin’s war, including sending shells and rockets. While the Biden administration said the weapons won’t do much to alter the battlefield, the sales would open a new stream of revenue to a country isolated from much of world trade.
One thing Kim does have in abundance is weaponry, especially the crude 20th-century artillery experiencing something of a revival on the frontlines of Ukraine. North Korea possesses untold stores of munitions to supply what the International Institute of Strategic Studies estimates is an arsenal of more than 21,600 artillery pieces, a force that has for decades held Seoul under the threat of Mariupol-like devastation.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told a news briefing about a week ago there was evidence the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization heavily involved in the effort to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, was receiving deliveries of North Korean and equipment. He displayed two photographs that purported to show Russian rail cars traveling to North Korea.
A major deal could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, Oliemens said, adding, “it would make sense for Russia to first acquire smaller batches first,” and assess their quality and effectiveness before committing to a larger purchase. It wouldn’t take much—payments totaling less than $320 million—to add 1 percent to North Korea’s gross domestic product.
“There are both economic and political incentives for North Korea to supply arms to Russia, and the two may be intertwined,” said Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist at the Rand Corp. in Washington. North Korea’s need for hard currency is the most obvious economic reason but Pyongyang could be compensated in other ways, including fuel shipments, she said.
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