Are we approaching solar maximum? Despite what you might have read, the peak in the sun's activity is not imminent.
“The steeper the solar cycle and the higher the peak in sunspots, the shorter the solar cycle,” said French in an interview. “Cycles with a lower peak will be slightly longer than 11 years and cycles with a higher peak will be slightly shorter than 11 years.” The articles about solar maximum arriving early were based on higher than expected sunspot numbers.
The solar physics community is trying to predict when solar maximum will occur, with the new era of algorithms, machine learning and AI fueling new models that attempt to pin it down in new ways. The NCAR model uses a new physical idea called “the terminator” within the sun. This refers to an overlap between one solar cycle ending and another beginning, with the terminator referring to a point where sunspot numbers begin accelerating.
Space weather is split into two major events on the surface of the sun that can have consequences for Earth—solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
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