NFL Week 2 picks, predictions, and best bets. Jason Logan's NFL underdog ATS picks, featuring the Chicago Bears.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers pickgo from +2.5 Week 2 dogs in the look-ahead markets this summer to -3 after stealing a win at Minnesota in the opener.
Yes, Chicago looked really bad in a Week 1 wash against Green Bay, but this spread should be more in the pick’em range or evenTampa Bay made the most of three turnovers from Kirk Cousins in a 20-17 stunner, and finished “upside down” in yardage, getting outgained by almost 130 yards on the day. The Bucs defense caused a lot of chaos with Todd Bowles dialing up the blitz on almost 45% of Cousins’ dropbacks, taking advantage of a plodding passer who runs like his pockets are full of rocks.
Fields made ultra-aggressive defenses pay for bringing extra bodies last year, torching the likes of Miami and Detroit for 178 and 132 rushing yards respectively in 2022. His PFF grades versus the blitz show an expected decline in passer metrics but his rushing numbers in those spots are almost off the chart.Baker MayfieldMayfield passed for two touchdowns and had some big runs in the fourth quarter, but otherwise had a ho-hum day in his Buccaneers debut.
On the day, the Bucs offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play and totaled only 16 first downs, with a 7-for-18 success rate on third/fourth down conversions. The other teams that put up numbers like this last Sunday suffered one-sided losses, not upset wins., Mayfield apparently figured out the Vikings’ defensive signals early on. That could explain why Baker had the fifth-highest second-half QB in EPA+CPOE rating in Week 1.I was able to bet this one Bears +3.
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