![[Newsstand] To win, Leni Robredo needs 22 million votes](https://i.headtopics.com/images/2022/3/28/rapplerdotcom/newsstand-to-win-leni-robredo-needs-22-million-votes-1508447342134972423.webp)
A couple of crucial assumptions, and a path to victory. PHVote WeDecide PHVoteRobredo
The surge in support for Vice President Leni Robredo’s candidacy is real, though it has yet to be reflected in a publicly available scientific survey. The large rallies and the pivotal declarations of support from local officials are only the most audible signals in all the election noise.
I will also assume that, with a few adjustments, Robredo will follow more or less the same trail to victory she blazed in 2016. This means winning the same nine regions she won, by about the same margins, and then holding her own in other regions. . Region V, Bicol, has a reputation for cohesive support of Bicolanos running for national office. In 2016, 63.88 percent of the votes cast for vice president in Bicol went to Leni; about 25 percent went to Chiz Escudero, Sonny Trillanes, and Gringo Honasan. With no Bicolano to split the vote with her this year, it is reasonable to assume that Robredo will receive a higher share of support. Assuming an 85-percent turnout , and 90-percent support , Robredo can win 2.99 million votes.
Region IV-A, which includes Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon, is by far the most vote-rich region. In 2016, Robredo won 33.92 percent of the votes. Assuming a 75-percent turnout , and with only 30-percent support, Robredo can win 2.07 million votes. All told, given reasonable adjustments in three regions and similar or lower assumptions in the other six, Robredo can win 14.18 million votes from the regions she topped in 2016.Assuming both the same turnout rates and the same percentage of votes cast in 2016, Robredo can win 763,000 votes in Northern Luzon , 942,000 votes in Region VIII, and 988,000 votes in Regions XI and XII.
Where can she source those additional votes? She'll need to do much better in Central Luzon, NCR, and Region XI. If she can push her vote percentage in both Region III and NCR to 40 percent , and in the Davao region to 30 percent , she will get 22 million votes.
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