Instead of an easy win for the opposition, disarray in the campaign of the National Party and the ACT Party might drive voters back to Labour Prime Minister Chris Hipkins.
, you might think the outcome should be easy to predict. Many polls have shown that New Zealanders think the country is on the wrong path. Usually, this would point to a win for the opposition.
Initially, Ardern’s pandemic management approach, bolstered by her persuasive communication skills, seemed successful. By the end of 2020, about 70 per cent of New Zealanders felt the country was on the right track. Her successor, Chris Hipkins, had a strong start, mainly because he was not the polarising figure Ardern had become. Nonetheless, Hipkins inherited Ardern’s problems: an undisciplined cabinet, unpopular policies, and a government that seemed weary after just two terms.
The opposition seemed to be in a better position as it benefited from public dissatisfaction and media reports about worrying social issues. It seemed a textbook case that oppositions do not win elections, but rather, governments lose them.So why is the election outcome still uncertain? Mistakes in the campaigns of the larger National Party and the smaller ACT Party could be the reason.
Instead of co-operating, National and ACT often seemed to work against each other as much as against the Labour government. This has been compounded by policy differences. For months, National had not ruled out a coalition with New Zealand First, a smallish populist party led by veteran politician Winston Peters. Peters, the eternal kingmaker of New Zealand politics, gains much of his relevance from larger parties’ willingness to work with him.
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