The Qing Dynasty in China, after over 250 years, crumbled in 1912. Led by the Complexity Science Hub (CSH), an international research team has pinpointed key reasons behind the collapse, revealing parallels to modern instability and offering vital lessons for the future.
China is considered today to be the world's largest economy . However, this position is not new. In 1820, China's economy already held the top spot, accounting for 32.9% of the global GDP. In the interim, there was a period of decline followed by a resurgence.
Scientists have been attempting to pinpoint the causes behind the fall of the Qing Dynasty for two centuries. Various factors had previously been proposed, including environmental disasters, foreign incursions, famines, or uprisings. However,"none of these factors provides a comprehensive explanation," notes Turchin.
Secondly, this led to increased competition for elite positions. While the number of contenders soared, the number of awarded highest academic degrees declined, reaching its nadir in 1796. Because such a degree was necessary for obtaining a position in the powerful Chinese bureaucracy, this mismatch between the number of positions and those desiring them created a large pool of disgruntled elite aspirants.
Collectively, these factors culminated in a series of uprisings that heralded the end of the Qing Dynasty and exacted a heavy toll in terms of Chinese lives lost.had already peaked between 1840 and 1890."Assuming that the Qing rulers were unaware of this mounting pressure would be erroneous," explains Turchin. The fact that the dynasty endured until 1912 rather underscores its institutional structures' robustness.
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