Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) this week emerged as a key winner from New Hampshire's monthslong Republican brawl over apportionment in the Granite State, with the new map leaving the incumbent congressman’s district largely intact.
Republicans had long been gunning for his competitive 1st District seat during apportionment, hoping to mold it into a safe seat for themselves. But Republican Gov. Chris Sununu frustrated those endeavors and forced a stalemate that led to a court-imposed map maintaining the status quo — two New Hampshire seats that have had similar lines since the 1880s, roughly split along the Merrimack River.
His district, which lies east of the Merrimack River, has a +1 Republican advantage, according to FiveThirtyEight, but victory in the district has long eluded the GOP. Since 2010, Republicans have only been able to snag the seat on two occasions, most recently in 2014. This is why state lawmakers sought to capitalize on the decennial line-drawing process to buttress GOP support in the district that has been stubbornly resistant to Republican rule.
“I don't think any of the candidates who are running are ideal. They're certainly not that well known,” Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, told the Washington Examiner. “It's going to be up to them to make a case for themselves.” Another factor that bodes well for Pappas is his tendency to brandish more centrist and bipartisan bona fides, according to Scala.
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