The Indian government will meet its deficit target for the coming fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll of economists who were split on whether New Delhi would undertake all the capital spending it is planning, the most ever.
The government also announced on Feb. 1 planned record capital expenditure of 10 trillion Indian rupees for the coming fiscal year, more than the 8.85 trillion expected in a Reuters poll before the budget.
"Are the budget numbers overly optimistic? On the margin, we think yes. We expect growth to slow materially in FY 2023/24... means tax revenues are likely to disappoint," said Sonal Varma, chief economist for India and Asia ex-Japan at Nomura. Over the past three years, New Delhi has nearly doubled its capital spending. But it has failed to meet its budget capex target four times over the past nine years and looks like falling short of this fiscal year's 7.5 trillion rupee target.
When asked if the measures announced in the budget would significantly affect job creation next fiscal year, 26 of 37 respondents said the measure would, but much would depend on how they were implemented.Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale, said, "Job creation is unlikely to be of the scale needed."
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