Natural Gas price pauses after 17% surge in prior week Gas Commodities Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis
Last week’s surge was one of the biggest of 2023, with Natural gas prices rising over 17%. The main catalyst was supply fears as several European Gas plants suffered longer-than-expected outages, leading to concerns of a repeat of last year’s supply crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and unexpectedly hot weather increasing air-conditioning demand.
Norwegian supply is now critical to the European continent after it replaced Russia as the main supplier in 2022, when Norwegian Gas accounted for 23% of imports compared to Russia’s 15%, according to a report by CNN. That said the position is not as precarious as in previous years: European storage facilities are now 73% full — a much higher level than the 56% averaged at the same time of the year over the past five years, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe .
The US Dollar could be a factor for XNG/USD, as market expectations of the trajectory of future interest rate changes in the US clash with comments from US Federal Reserve officials. Given the longer-term trend is bearish, Natural Gas would need to break above the last lower high of the long-term downtrend at $3.079 MMBtu to reverse the trend.
Yet on the 4-hour chart, the RSI is now blinking ‘overbought’ , which is a signal for bulls not to add any new long positions. It has come down from its peak and in the event that RSI exits the overbought zone and returns to neutral territory, it would be a signal for short-term horizon bulls to close their long positions altogether, and is likely to be indicative of a pullback in price after the recent strong gains.
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