Nearly 8 in 10 unemployed Americans believe their layoffs are temporary, but new research suggests that may not be the case for many people.
predicts that 42%, or 11.6 million, of all jobs lost through April 25 due to the coronavirus will become permanent. In a paper study this month, it used a combination of historical experience and survey data for the findings.
"The current crisis may be so severe that the fraction of temporary layoffs that become permanent ends up being much larger than the historical evidence would suggest," co-author Jose Maria Barrero cautioned in an email.showed a historic loss of 20.5 million nonfarm payrolls and the nation's unemployment rate soaring to 14.7%. Both numbers easily smashed post-World War II era records. In a small consolation, they weren't quite as bad as economists had expected.
According to the study, the jobs most at risk of being eliminated permanently include those lost due to demand shifts and those at companies that don't survive the coronavirus-related closures. "I would anticipate many bars and sit-down restaurants will not survive the pandemic as people avoid gathering in large groups. So many waiting and bar-tending jobs are likely to disappear permanently," said Barrero, an economist. "This is likely more of an issue for small, independent restaurants and bars than for large national chains."
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