Morgan Stanley's stock playbook for this slowing, 'late-cycle' economy

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Morgan Stanley's stock playbook for this slowing, 'late-cycle' economy
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The firm recommended a 'barbell' of traditional defensive stocks, some select growth opportunities and late-cycle cyclical names.

Investors should seek out safer hideaways in the market as economic activity reaches its peak — and defensive sectors, such as health care and utilities, are the best spot for that, according to Morgan Stanley. "The leading macro data suggests that we're in a late cycle market environment as do the internals of the equity market," analyst Andrew Pauker wrote in a Tuesday note.

Thermo Fisher said its pandemic-related revenue, which included testing and vaccines, is likely to be a headwind. Still, Morgan Stanley is optimistic on the stock, saying "we see TMO as among the best positioned across the sector to drive above-peer/-market growth ... given the combination of a resilient and diversified business model, strong operational track record, best-in-class team, focus on innovation ... and embedded capital deployment optionality.

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