Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
) with an “outperformer” rating, emphasizing its potential to deliver higher earnings per share gains in both fiscal 2024 and 2025 than the Big 6.
“FQ1 brought credit risk to the forefront despite EQB’s track record of very low losses. We expect actual losses on SFR impairments to be minimal based on LTVs and stable house prices. Losses on equipment finance are expected to remain elevated, but given the size of the portfolio the impact on earnings should not be outsized. We forecast a F2024 PCL ratio of 13 basis points, well below the average of 41 bps for the Big 6 banks.
“While FY25 is expected to be a challenging year for BRP with EPS down 30 per cent year-over-year, we believe that one-time items are blurring BRP’s underlying earnings power including a 10-15-per-cent one-time inventory reduction at dealerships and the impact from a weak snowmobile season in FY24, which results in lower shipments in FY25,” he said. “Excluding these headwinds, normalized EPS could have reached $11.50 in FY25, a level we view as more reflective of true earnings power for BRP.
“During calendar 2023, North American industry retail volumes increased low-single digits percentage year-over-year, excluding the impact from a weak snowmobile season,” he said. “According to Polaris, North American industry units for SSVs and ATVs, are up 5 per cent in 2023 vs 2019 levels suggesting that a correction in industry volumes has not occurred yet. For comparison, the U.S.
“Although DOO’s newly introduced guidance was below expectations, we believe there are ‘rip the Band-Aid off’ dynamics at play,” said Mr. Poirier. “Management stated that FY25 guidance does not assume any rate cuts, demonstrating its conservatism . We now forecast EPS of $7.87 in FY25 and $11.48 in FY26. We are taking a conservative stance as the pace of inventory depletion remains uncertain. Overall, investors have already baked in FY25 as a wash and are pricing on FY26, in our view.
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