Here's what the top contenders must do to catch Ronald Acuna Jr. and the two Cy Young front-runners down the stretch.
We're calling Gallen the favorite because he's the leader in AXE. In reality, this race is a muddle, and not in a fun sort of way. Of the top six listed here, Gallen has the third-best ERA and ERA+, but it's fairly close and he has the second-most innings. Of those ahead of him in ERA and innings , Gallen has the best fielding-independent ERA .
While bWAR likes Webb pretty strongly, fWAR likes Wheeler, with Gallen a close second. Among the listed starters, Gallen leads in championship probability added, but Diaz trumps all of them in the contextual categories. So, yeah, it's a muddle.Webb has as good a combination of volume and run prevention as Gallen. His fielding-independent numbers are a little worse, but he does lead the NL in walks per 9 and strikeout to walks ratio.
And if no one does create that separation it could possibly open the door for a reliever like Diaz, who has led pitchers in win probability added for most of the season. Diaz has fallen off a bit of late and that has to stop now. But if he throws up zeroes the rest of the way and slams the door in a Reds wild card clincher, you never know. And don't sleep on Williams, who has been more consistent than Diaz and might be the single biggest reason the Brewers end up in the playoffs.
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