'As China descends further into personalistic rule, it will be less able to correct or reverse the questionable decisions made by its top leadership' argues China expert Minxin Pei
AMERICA’S CHAOTIC exit from Afghanistan must be seen by Chinese leaders as the latest proof of its irreversible decline. But their euphoria will be short-lived. As consummate realists, they know that President Joe Biden is taking the United States out of the “grave of empires” so that he can conserve America’s power to prevail against China in the next chapter of their contest for global supremacy.
China still has relatively strong economic momentum in the coming decade. Its GDP is about 70% of America’s at market exchange rates . Yet Chinese income per person, at slightly over $10,000 a year, is about one-sixth of Americans’ standard of living. This implies that China has a lot more room to grow, thanks to its huge internal market, its dynamic private sector and its vast pool of workers.
What is more, China is ageing faster than America. The UN projects that in 2040 the median age in China will be 46.3 years, compared with 41.6 for the United States. As a result, China’s growth is expected to slow down significantly in the 2030s. Factor in the capabilities of America’s allies, and the balance of power tilts further in America’s favour. Whereas China has no real allies, America is blessed with many. And whereas the United States has no big rivals in its region, China must contend with several powerful adversaries, notably India and Japan, in its immediate neighbourhood. China is far weaker than most people realise.
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