New data from FirstStreetFdn shows millions of at-risk properties are not on FEMA flood maps and even more properties will be in danger of flooding by 2050.
Kerry Emmanuel, professor of atmospheric science at MIT and First Street advisory board member
Many flood experts said the discrepancy between the two models wasn’t surprising, given the limitations baked into FEMA’s calculations. The federal agency is stretched thin, struggling to keep its flood maps up to date, particularly for inland areas perceived to be less vulnerable than the coasts, experts said. The agency also looks only at historical data to assess where flooding could strike next, leaving out current and future models that assess where else risk might exist or even be growing.
The discrepancies led Fugate’s team to develop its own flood maps with what they felt were better models. In some places, the difference in predicted water levels was as much as 16 feet.Eric Tate, a professor at the University of Iowa who early in his career built flood modeling tools as a FEMA contractor, agreed the agency’s maps can be outdated, miss lower-priority areas and at times become subject to political influence through a revision process.
The agency sees First Street’s Flood Factor as a tool to inform a property owner’s decision to buy flood insurance or take steps to reduce individual flood risk, Litzow said.
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